A study by Bangor, Southampton and London universities concludes that the rate of degradation of natural environments is accelerating more than anticipated.
According to the study published in the renowned journal Nature, large ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest will collapse and disappear in less than 50 years. The research used computer simulations to reach these conclusions. In the analysis, real data was used from more than 40 natural environments: four terrestrial ecosystems, 13 freshwater ecosystems and 25 saltwater ecosystems.
According to scientists at the University of London, Southampton University and Bangor University many of these ecosystems are collapsing at a “significantly faster rate” than previously calculated. The researchers reveal the speed with which ecosystems of different sizes will disappear, as they have passed the point at which they collapsed, thus becoming alternative ecosystems. An example of a transformation to an alternative ecosystem is the iconic Amazon rainforest, which could change to a Savanna-like ecosystem as soon as it reaches the “point of no return” within 50 years. Caribbean coral reefs can also be used as an example; in the same study, it is suggested that this area, some 20,000 kilometres long, may become white and sparsely populated in just 15 years.
Within the scientific community there are several researchers who argue that ecosystems are currently on the edge of this precipice, with fires and destruction in the Amazon and Australia.
“Unfortunately, what our article reveals is that humanity needs to prepare for these changes much earlier than expected,” says Simon Willcock, lead author and researcher at Bangor University’s School of Natural Sciences.
“These rapid changes in the world’s largest and most emblematic ecosystems would affect the benefits they provide, including everything from food and materials to the oxygen and water we need for life.
What can be done to delay or reduce these collapses?
Ecosystems composed of several interacting species, unlike those dominated by one species, can be more stable and take longer to change to an alternative ecosystem state.
They offer opportunities to mitigate or manage the worst effects, the authors say. For example, elephants are called “key pieces” among species because they have a disproportionately large impact on the landscape – they push trees but also seeds over great distances. The authors claim that the loss of key species like this would lead to a rapid and dramatic change in the landscape.
“This is another strong argument to avoid degradation of our planet’s ecosystems; we need to do more to conserve biodiversity,” says Gregory Cooper of the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London.
Professor of Physical Geography John Dearing, of Southampton University adds: “We intuitively knew that large systems would collapse more slowly than small ones because of the time it would take for the impacts to spread over great distances”.
“But what was unexpected was the discovery that the great systems collapse much faster than we could expect – even the largest on Earth, taking only a few decades.”